Thursday, May 13, 2010

The Myth of Herd Immunity


When the vaccine religionists sneer about those who are atheists of their religion, one specious, completely unsupportable, argument they regularly parrot is that those who do not vaccinate are benefiting from "herd immunity", i.e. the fictional notion that if a minimum number of people are vaccinated, it will provide protection to the entire herd (never mind that they are referring to human beings as a herd).


But what if "herd immunity" is a myth? From the horse's mouth, none other than the New England Journal of Medicine -


Measles outbreak in a fully immunized secondary-school population
TL Gustafson, AW Lievens, PA Brunell, RG Moellenberg, CM Buttery, and LM Sehulster

An outbreak of measles occurred among adolescents in Corpus Christi, Texas, in the spring of 1985, even though vaccination requirements for school attendance had been thoroughly enforced. Serum samples from 1806 students at two secondary schools were obtained eight days after the onset of the first case. Only 4.1 percent of these students (74 of 1806) lacked detectable antibody to measles according to enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and more than 99 percent had records of vaccination with live measles vaccine [in other words, 100% vaccination].


Stratified analysis showed that the number of doses of vaccine received was the most important predictor of antibody response. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals of seronegative rates were 0 to 3.3 percent for students who had received two prior doses of vaccine, as compared with 3.6 to 6.8 percent for students who had received only a single dose. After the survey, none of the 1732 seropositive students contracted measles. Fourteen of 74 seronegative students, all of whom had been vaccinated, contracted measles. In addition, three seronegative students seroconverted without experiencing any symptoms.


We conclude that outbreaks of measles can occur in secondary schools, even when more than 99 percent of the students have been vaccinated and more than 95 percent are immune.

***

From the Archives of Internal Medicine -

Failure to Reach the Goal of Measles Elimination
Apparent Paradox of Measles Infections in Immunized Persons
Gregory A. Poland, MD; Robert M. Jacobson, MD

Methods

We performed a computerized bibliographic literature search (National Library of Medicine) for all English-language articles dealing with measles outbreaks. We limited our search to reports of US and Canadian school-based outbreaks of measles, and we spoke with experts to get estimates of vaccine failure rates. In addition, we devised a hypothetical model of a school where measles immunization rates could be varied, vaccine failure rates could be calculated, and the percentage of measles cases occurring in immunized students could be determined.


Results

We found 18 reports of measles outbreaks in very highly immunized school populations where 71% to 99.8% of students were immunized against measles. Despite these high rates of immunization, 30% to 100% (mean, 77%) of all measles cases in these outbreaks occurred in previously immunized students. In our hypothetical school model, after more than 95% of schoolchildren are immunized against measles, the majority of measles cases occur in appropriately immunized children.

Conclusions

The apparent paradox is that as measles immunization rates rise to high levels in a population, measles becomes a disease of immunized persons. Because of the failure rate of the vaccine and the unique transmissibility of the measles virus, the currently available measles vaccine, used in a single-dose strategy, is unlikely to completely eliminate measles. The longterm success of a two-dose strategy to eliminate measles remains to be determined.

So tell me again why I should allow some quack to inject me or my child with nasty ingredients such as (MSG), potassium chloride, potassium phosphate monobasic, potassium phosphate dibasic, sodium bicarbonate, sodium phosphate dibasic, sorbitol, and sucrose, human albumin, human diploid cells, residual components of MRC-5 cells including DNA and proteins, bovine serum, hydrolized gelatin, and chicken embryos.

33 Comments:

At 5:39 AM, May 03, 2012 , Blogger Fowl Ideas said...

Hey...that's a cow.

 
At 3:50 PM, July 07, 2012 , Blogger Antaeus Feldspar said...

Are you aware of the screening paradox? Let me explain that briefly.

Suppose there's a certain condition that we want to test for, and the following facts are true about the condition and test:
1) Only one person in one hundred actually has the condition.
2) Out of one hundred people who really have the condition, the test will incorrectly report for one person that they don't have it.
3) Out of one hundred people who don't have the condition, the test will incorrectly report for one person that they do have it.

Now, if we screen a population of a million people, and we examine those who are reported by the test as positive, almost everyone we look at will really have the condition, right? Nope!! That's what makes it a paradox, that what really happens is so different from what we expect! Here's what really happens:
- 10,000 people actually have the condition.
- 9,900 of the people who have the condition (1/100 of 10,000) will be correctly reported as having it.

- 990,000 people do not have the condition.
- 9,900 people who actually do not have the condition (1/100 of 990,000) will be incorrectly reported as having it.

Of the people our screening pointed to as having the condition, fully half are actually false positives! Why? Because we screened a very large population where the overwhelming number of people did not have the condition. A very small percentage of a very large group still makes a very large group! That's the paradox, the surprising result that is nevertheless true.

Now, how do we apply this to measles? By noting that the cases the researchers were talking about were environments where not being immunized was RARE. In other words, the population of immunized students is a very large group and the population of non-immunized students is very small. Even if the protective effect of measles vaccine is so strong that only a small percentage of students who get the vaccine get measles nevertheless, that small percentage of a large group still makes a large group!

If we looked at the handedness of the students who contracted measles, we'd probably find that most of them were right-handed. That's because most of the population is right-handed! It does not imply that right-handedness is a risk factor for measles, it simply reflects the makeup of the population. If someone said "well, let's all become left-handed, because most measles cases happen in right-handed people," it'd be ridiculous - increasing the number of left-handed people would simply increase the number of cases in left-handed people! It's similarly misguided to go from the observation "as immunization rates rise in a population, measles become a disease of immunized persons" to the conclusion "it's not worth getting immunized."

 
At 3:50 PM, July 07, 2012 , Blogger Antaeus Feldspar said...

Are you aware of the screening paradox? Let me explain that briefly.

Suppose there's a certain condition that we want to test for, and the following facts are true about the condition and test:
1) Only one person in one hundred actually has the condition.
2) Out of one hundred people who really have the condition, the test will incorrectly report for one person that they don't have it.
3) Out of one hundred people who don't have the condition, the test will incorrectly report for one person that they do have it.

Now, if we screen a population of a million people, and we examine those who are reported by the test as positive, almost everyone we look at will really have the condition, right? Nope!! That's what makes it a paradox, that what really happens is so different from what we expect! Here's what really happens:
- 10,000 people actually have the condition.
- 9,900 of the people who have the condition (1/100 of 10,000) will be correctly reported as having it.

- 990,000 people do not have the condition.
- 9,900 people who actually do not have the condition (1/100 of 990,000) will be incorrectly reported as having it.

Of the people our screening pointed to as having the condition, fully half are actually false positives! Why? Because we screened a very large population where the overwhelming number of people did not have the condition. A very small percentage of a very large group still makes a very large group! That's the paradox, the surprising result that is nevertheless true.

Now, how do we apply this to measles? By noting that the cases the researchers were talking about were environments where not being immunized was RARE. In other words, the population of immunized students is a very large group and the population of non-immunized students is very small. Even if the protective effect of measles vaccine is so strong that only a small percentage of students who get the vaccine get measles nevertheless, that small percentage of a large group still makes a large group!

If we looked at the handedness of the students who contracted measles, we'd probably find that most of them were right-handed. That's because most of the population is right-handed! It does not imply that right-handedness is a risk factor for measles, it simply reflects the makeup of the population. If someone said "well, let's all become left-handed, because most measles cases happen in right-handed people," it'd be ridiculous - increasing the number of left-handed people would simply increase the number of cases in left-handed people! It's similarly misguided to go from the observation "as immunization rates rise in a population, measles become a disease of immunized persons" to the conclusion "it's not worth getting immunized."

 
At 3:54 PM, July 07, 2012 , Blogger Antaeus Feldspar said...

Sorry for the double post. The browser I'm using doesn't like this edit box. Also, the math for the number of true positive results should be (99/100 of 10,000) rather than (1/100 of 10,000), which is the correct calculation for false positives.

 
At 2:32 PM, April 17, 2013 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Long before agriculture, supposedly healthier, taller, cave people ate the Paleo--no
grains, no starches, low sugar. paleo List Of Foods : Celiac disease, gluten
sensitivity, cow's milk, contain morphine like substances. Ghee by providing the number of calories I consume can support, the excess fat will continue to get worse and worse until you are forced to have your gallbladder removed.

Stop by my webpage; the diet solution program review

 
At 12:20 AM, May 08, 2013 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Then, there are people that you can get closer to search engine marketing, but missed a three-foot putt for bogey on No.
The reason for that is simple - the categories. You can drive
links to the important ones. Thus Google may value a link coming from.



Look into my homepage ... search engine optimizations

 
At 8:20 AM, May 09, 2013 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Both on-page and off-page home business techniques
to optimize the website. This concept is the same feeling:
to her it sounded confusing, what she wants to do is
to find these keywords and develop home business articles around them.
You can not only increase the number of links in any given blog post.
Login to your blogger dashboard and go to the original author.


Review my homepage: search engine keyword rankings

 
At 5:57 AM, May 22, 2013 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

prayers to get ex back pills, also commonly marketed as cleanse pills,
can sell anywhere from $10 to $300 for a 30-day supply. 2 The 6-Day" Advanced" Oxygen Colon Cleanse Instructions Designed for people who are generally
healthy already and want a deep cleansing and repairing of the intestinal tract.
Per day The air is fresh and the foods preferably
not canned or dried. Water is important for the body.


Feel free to visit my web-site webpage

 
At 4:14 PM, December 07, 2014 , Blogger oakleyses said...

burberry outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, oakley vault, longchamp outlet online, michael kors outlet online, true religion outlet, louis vuitton, true religion, polo ralph lauren, christian louboutin, ray ban outlet, louis vuitton outlet, michael kors outlet store, louis vuitton handbags, kate spade outlet online, christian louboutin shoes, tory burch outlet online, coach outlet, red bottom shoes, coach purses, christian louboutin outlet, longchamp handbags, coach outlet, burberry outlet online, nike air max, jordan shoes, michael kors outlet online, cheap oakley sunglasses, tiffany and co jewelry, gucci handbags, prada handbags, polo ralph lauren outlet, nike outlet, prada outlet, tiffany jewelry, michael kors outlet, oakley sunglasses, chanel handbags, longchamp outlet, ray ban sunglasses, nike air max, kate spade outlet, michael kors handbags, coach outlet store online, nike free, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton outlet online

 
At 4:22 PM, December 07, 2014 , Blogger oakleyses said...

moncler outlet, links of london uk, coach outlet, ray ban, nike air max, juicy couture outlet, pandora uk, louis vuitton canada, louboutin, juicy couture outlet, canada goose, timberland shoes, converse, thomas sabo uk, montre femme, moncler, canada goose pas cher, uggs canada, pandora jewelry, hollister, converse shoes, pandora charms, moncler, hollister canada, supra shoes, ralph lauren, ugg, canada goose, moncler, moncler, lancel, replica watches, canada goose, gucci, swarovski jewelry, moncler, hollister clothing, karen millen, air max, parajumpers outlet, iphone 6 case, wedding dress, toms outlet, oakley, baseball bats, vans, moncler outlet, swarovski uk

 
At 2:07 AM, September 16, 2015 , Blogger Unknown said...

2015-09-16 zhengjx
Coach Outlet Online Coach Factory Outlet
Louis Vuitton Handbags UK For Sale
Louis Vuitton Handbags Official USA Website
timberland boots
ugg boots
Oakley Sunglasses Official Website Cheap Off
coach factory outlet online
nike trainers
toms outlet
celine handbags
michael kors outlet
Hollister UK Clothing Store
Louis Vuitton Outlet Discount Handbags
Cheap Louis Vuitton Handbags Luggage Bags Sale
cheap jordans
hollister uk
michael kors bags
ugg boots sale
Gucci Outlet Online 80% OFF
ugg australia
michael kors outlet
Mont Blanc Pens For Sale
Michael Kors Outlet Online 70% Off Handbags
Ralph Lauren UK Sale Polo Shirts
Christian Louboutin Outlet For Women
ugg boots
Louis Vuitton Outlet Authentic Handbags Discount
michael kors handbags
Louis Vuitton Handbags Outlet On Sale
Louis Vuitton Outlet Purses and Handbags For Sale

 
At 6:10 PM, November 05, 2015 , Blogger Unknown said...

Obat Manjur untuk Ambeien Sudah Level Akut
Cara Mengobati Ambeien Wasir
Obat Wasir dan Ambeien
dari ujung kemaluan pria keluar nanah
Obat Ambeien Luar Parah Salep
Cara Aman Menyembuhkan Ambeien Wasir Tanpa Operasi
Nama Obat Sipilis di Apotik
Jual Obat Kondiloma Akuminata Alami
Cara Ampuh Untuk Mengobati Ambeien
Cara Alami Mengobati Ambeien Wasir
Cara Mengobati Kutil di sekitar Kemaluan
Penyebab Kemaluan Pria Mengeluarkan Nanah dan Darah
Obat Wasir Manjur Alami Ampuh
Pengobatan Kanker Alami
Pengobatan Wasir Ampuh
Pengobatan Ujung Kemaluan Mengeluarkan Nanah dan Darah
Nama Obat Penyakit Sipilis
Cara Tradisional Menyembuhkan Ambeien Berdarah Tanpa Operasi
Pengobatan Penyakit Kanker Alami
Resep Obat Kondiloma Akuminata Alami
Cara Mengobati Penyakit Ambeien Pada Anak
Cara Mengobati Penyakit Ambeien Ibu Hamil
Obat Manjur untuk Mengatasi Ambeien Sudah Akut
mengobati kutil di kemaluan pria
Obat Wasir alami di Apotik
Jual Obat Ambeien Luar Salep
Solusi Dari Kemaluan Pria Keluar Cairan Nanah

 
At 6:15 AM, February 28, 2016 , Blogger Unknown said...

louboutin outlet
red sole shoes
mbt canada
discount mbt Shoes
fitflops shoes
fitflops on sale
All Balck Huarache
Kobe Shoes
kate spade outlet
kate spade new york
michael kors handbags
2015 michael kors outlet
michael kors selma
Michael Kors Discount
michael kors bracelet
michael kors handbags on sale
michael kors bags
michael kors Premium Outlets
michael kors factory outlet
michael kors hamilton
cheap jordans
air jordan
kobe 9
kobe shoes
nike air max 2015
nike air max 1
nike free 5.0 womens
nike store

 
At 8:59 AM, March 29, 2017 , Anonymous Debouchage tuyaux lafertealais said...

on est a votre ecoute

 
At 6:50 PM, June 29, 2017 , Blogger raybanoutlet001 said...

mont blanc outlet
jordan shoes
ralph lauren uk
rolex watches
snapbacks wholesale
michael kors outlet
michael kors bags
polo ralph lauren
kobe 9
nike factory outlet

 
At 10:41 PM, July 21, 2017 , Blogger raybanoutlet001 said...

golden state warriors jerseys
versace jeans
converse trainers
michael kors handbags
ralph lauren polo
nike free run
ugg outlet
snapbacks wholesale
clippers jersey
nike outlet

 
At 12:30 PM, December 16, 2017 , Blogger anosh said...

Cleaning company with Abha
Often, many customers try to find companies with confidence and experience in cleaning. A cleaning company with a skilled mother has the experience and confidence that the customer can put his house in their hands. A cleaning company provides all the cleaning services for the home and institutions with high quality and high level that suits the customer
شركة تنظيف منازل بأبها

 
At 7:06 PM, May 11, 2018 , Anonymous Biaya dan Efek Samping Operasi Kista Bartholin said...


This article is interesting and useful. Thank you for sharing. And let me share an article about health that God willing will be very useful. Thank you :)

Cara Mengobati Panu
Obat Penghenti Batuk Berdarah
Penyebab dan cara Mengatasi jantung Berdebar
Cara Mengobati Lipoma secara Alami

 
At 12:33 AM, October 08, 2018 , Blogger Unknown said...

I can only express a word of thanks. Because with the content on this blog I can add knowledge I, thank has been sharing this information. Do not forget to visit our website to share information and knowledge about health.
cara mengobati tumor rahang
vitamin penambah nafsu makan anak
cara menghilangkan panu di wajah
Hopefully, sustenance will be easy and simplified in all matters :-)
OBAT KLIYENGAN ALAMI
Cara Menghilangkan Lemak Di Perut
obat penyakit varikorel

 
At 12:38 AM, November 05, 2018 , Blogger Riko JR said...

I can only express a word of thanks. Because with the content on this blog I can add knowledge I, thank has been sharing this information. Do not forget to visit our website to share information and knowledge about health. |
cara mengobati kanker Kolorektal |
cara mengobati payudara bengkak |
obat bisul di payudara |

 
At 7:55 PM, November 05, 2018 , Blogger Jelly Gamat Herbal said...

I can only express a word of thanks. Because with the content on this blog I can add knowledge I, thank has been sharing this information. Do not forget to visit our website to share information and knowledge about health.|
cara Mengobati Benjolan Di Kelopak mata |
Obat sakit tumit di apotik |

 
At 7:09 PM, January 15, 2019 , Blogger Riko JR said...

I can only say thank you, for sharing information about health. Don't forget to visit our page. Thank you |
Obat luka memar | paling ampuh
cara pesan QnC Jelly Gamat | proses cepat
obat bekas operasi caesar 100% Ampuh dan manjur
Obat Step paling ampuh | 100% manjur
obat benjola di pipi | 100% Alami dan ampuh
obat infeksi salurran kencing | yang ampuh

 
At 12:53 AM, January 18, 2019 , Blogger Selfless said...

I've got eight Tough Magnus runs per week. However, Tyrant boots simply don't sell anymore since literally any random individual can leech their method into some boots.I are treated exactly the same way (or worse, if the participant has greater variety ), Maplestory M Mesos for sale as gamers who paid their way to top, even though it requires literally no maplestory2 ability whatsoever to get to the top if you are paying from pocket. No. Skill. At. All.

So instead of relaxing and bossing daily for earnings, I must rely on the exact same exact methods I used seven months ago, before I reached six-digit range, once I reached max mesos for the first time.I literally have not seen a single person that has attained 2mil range in a shorter time span without having to spend cash, or is more proficient than me at creating revenue, yet I'm considered another 2m range player in my server.

This sport is simply way too simple for those who pay their way towards the very best. The marketplace for end game falls simply crashes, buying MapleStory 2 Mesos diminishing in reaching end game standing to nothing what accomplishment that is small there's.

 
At 9:13 PM, February 12, 2019 , Blogger smrtsmith said...

I got RS Gold on the MMOAH website and it feels good. There are a lot of ticket sellers on the Soren website that are also very cheap to sell, but security is not guaranteed. I am on the MMOAH website three times on Buy RS Gold. Has never been blocked, and the customer service is also very enthusiastic and responsible, very satisfied with a game site.

 
At 5:51 PM, March 03, 2019 , Blogger Riko JR said...

Good information. i like this srticle. This is the best blog.. Good luck..!!
obat mata juling
obat cantengan bernanah
manfaat jeruk lemon
obat bell's palsy

 
At 1:40 AM, April 23, 2019 , Blogger Riko JR said...


Hopefully, sustenance will be easy and simplified in all matters |
Solusi Pengobatan Alami |
obat herbal benjolan di ketiak
Obat Alergi Kaligata via vallen
Obat Penghilang Singkayo |
Cara Mengeluarkan Dahak Membandel

 
At 10:45 PM, January 14, 2020 , Blogger smrtsmith said...



Which site is the best one you have ever used for Madden 20 Coins?

To tell you the truth, since playing Madden NFL 20, I have been acquiring a series of virtual currencies such as MUT 20 Coins from GameMS. Because before that, I have already noticed other games on this website.

A great website that not only provides game item transactions to players, but also provides novice players with game experience and methods. This is not an accident, but a continuous output of content. This is what I appreciate GameMS very much.

As far as trading is concerned, it is well worth Buy MUT 20 Coins on GameMS. First of all, the security guarantee is absolute, mainly because the price is very good, the time-limited promotion is very real, and it is worth waiting for five to six minutes. In short, it doesn't delay players from playing games.

 
At 6:44 AM, January 12, 2021 , Anonymous cheapjerseyswholesale said...

A couple of months ago I discovered another website that talked in depth about this topic. I am glad you were able to shed some light on what’s really happening out there. Some web sites are overtly biased towards things like this. Where do you think the industry is going in response to this? cheapjerseyswholesale

 
At 12:34 AM, May 23, 2021 , Blogger deraz said...

ابو الهول
تركيب أرضيات خشبية باركية بالشارقة
كهربائي منازل وفلل الشارقة


 
At 4:08 AM, July 16, 2021 , Blogger Daily Technology Updates said...

Nice information thanks for sharing.

comment installer office com sur notre PC. Installation facile de www office com setup et installation de la suite Microsoft Office. Vérifiez également la configuration de office com en français et procédez à l'installation de https setup office com 2010

 
At 4:28 PM, March 19, 2022 , Blogger mohamed abdo said...

19.شركة تنظيف فلل الشارقه
20.شركة مكافحة الحمام دبي
21.شركة تنظيف كنب وسجاد الشارقه
22.شركة تنظيف بالبخار دبي
23.شركة جلي وتلميع الرخام دبي
24.شركة مكافحة البق الشارقة

 
At 4:37 PM, April 20, 2022 , Blogger mohamed abdo said...


1.شركة تنظيف مطابخ الشارقه
2.شركة مكافحة حشرات الشارقة
3.شركة مكافحه حشرات دبي
4.شركة تنظيف منازل دبي
5.شركة تنظيف مطابخ دبي
6.شركة تنظيف بالبخار دبي
7.شركة مكافحه الحمام دبي

 
At 4:42 PM, April 20, 2022 , Blogger mohamed abdo said...


15.شركة مكافحه البق دبي
16.شركة مكافحه البق الشارقه
17.شركة مكافحة النمل الابيض دبي
18.شركة مكافحة البرص دبي
19.شركة مكافحة صراصير الشارقه
20.شركة تنظيف كنب وسجاد الشارقه

 

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home