Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Is History Linear Or Cyclical?

The answer you choose to this question defines your worldview in a way that, perhaps, you previously never considered.

If you believe history is linear, you join Karl Marx, Christian armageddonists and Shia Muslims. Marx believed that after feudalism comes capitalism and after capitalism comes communism -- in that order! Because the technology of capitalism is required to sustain communism, it is not possible to skip a step in the progress. In the Manifesto of the Communist Party, Marx observed that "the development of class antagonism keeps even pace with the development of industry, the economic situation, as they find it, does not as yet offer to them the material conditions for the emancipation of the proletariat." No country on earth, regardless of its label, has ever been truly communist according to Marx's view of human development. If he is correct and history is linear, there is still time.

The Christian armageddonists see all conflict as setting the stage for the end of the days. Notwithstanding the popular concept of the Battle of Armageddon, the Bible makes no specific prediction for a war fought at Armageddon between two human armies precisely at Christ’s return. The Bible does say, however, that the armies of the East and West will be drawn to the infamous valley by lying demons. Lying demons you say? After the battle, life will be peachy and peace will reign.

Shia Muslims share with Christians a similar concept of a messiah. In Shia belief, there were 12 imams (rulers of the community) who came after the Prophet Mohamed. The 12th, however, was a child and there were grave fears of his assassination. Whether he was killed or died in hiding, the Shia believe that the 12th imam "disappeared", is still with us today, and will reappear as the mahdi (messiah) to usher in peace and prosperity in the world. I heard an interview the other day wherein the speaker said that the bombing of the al-askariya mosque in Iraq is supposed to trigger the return of the mahdi because that is the place he was last seen alive.

The common thread among the linear historians is the notion of fate - that there is a pre-ordained conclusion to the movie and everything happening in the world is propelling us toward that end.

Cyclical historians, in contrast, offer the "same shit, different pile" view of history. It's happened before and it is going to happen again. With respect to the cyclic nature of historical trends, philosophers maintain that every community is exposed to two opposite dangers -- ossification and dissolution -- as follows:
Civilizations start with a rigid belief system based on a dogma. If the dogma is relaxed, civilization may reach a point of balance between discipline and freedom, often its period of brilliant genius. This stage typically dissolves into anarchy. The anarchy leads to tyranny, justified by a new dogma.

If this framework is correct, where is America on the spectrum?

This question of the nature of history is relevant to current political discourse. It appears that the linear Nostredamus' of the world are framing the discussion, while the cyclical historians are shut out. The response to the Danish cartoons, many Americans believe, is evidence that Islam is evil, backwards, blah, blah. It is undisputable that Islam needs a reformation, but Christianity has been there before.

One with knowledge of history can envision the Muslim and Jewish leaders of Islamic Spain who ushered in an age of enlightenment looking down their noses at the backwards Christians. Words that begin with "al" are of Arabic origin, including algebra and alchemy. Muslims translated the works of Aristotle and Socrates and other Greek philosophers from the original languages to Arabic then to European tongues. This era was the golden rebirth of Judaic culture and the Hebrew language. All this while Christians were dying of starvation and slaughtering each other.

Does everyone get their turn at the crazy wheel or are the current times part of a grand plan with a pre-set conclusion?


At 1:44 PM, February 28, 2006 , Blogger Chris said...

You have a habit of asking questions that seem simple at first, but then get awfully murky in a hurry... I like that.

When I read your headline, "Is History Linear or Cyclical" I had several thoughts flit through what I laughingly refer to as "my mind." The first was the long view - is the universe expanding or contracting? There are those that think that the universe itself is cyclical, that the force of the Big Bang will keep the universe expanding until such time that the gravitational force of everything within the universe will start things contracting again, until, eventually, everything will collapse in a gnaB giB (reverse Bang). Other people think the universe will expand forever. (Which doesn't take into consideration dark matter or Gamma Ray Bursts, but that's a whole different thing altogether.) I tend to believe that the universe is cyclical - it starts from a "cosmic egg," expands a while, then will start contracting until it's a "cosmic egg" again, thus starting over. (I think Einstein postulated that at the point when the universe starts to contract time may reverse itself. I believe that's been refuted.) But I don't think you meant the history of the entire universe.

The next thing that zipped through what foggy awareness I possess was the word "epicycle." Way back yonder in the olden days of yore, Ptolemy tried to describe the motion of the planets using epicycles. The Ptolemaic system accounted for the fact that people could track a planet moving across the sky one direction for a while, then it'd slow down, go backwards for a little bit, then resume it's course across the night sky again. People thus surmised that the planets followed little itty-bitty orbits within their major orbits, and they called the little itty-bitty orbits "epicycles."

I think history has epicycles. Cultures, civilizations, people, thought - it all goes forward for a while, then slows down and backs up a little, then continues onward. And, it's my contention that all the various cultures, people, components of history do NOT have their epicycles at the same time. While one culture goes through a difficult spot, another sails on ahead.

So, I guess my view of history is that it lurches a lot, but it always moves forward eventually. We're in a lurch at the moment. We've been bravely taking a step forward into the past for the past five-six years now...

At 5:00 PM, February 28, 2006 , Blogger d nova said...

i kinda like vico 1132, but if the universe contracts i'll eat my 'at.

thanx 4 ur comments. i posted a reply 2 ur reminder.

also, have u seen this of the devilspawn?

At 7:44 PM, February 28, 2006 , Blogger chad said...

He Insurgent,
Your post made me think... maybe a little too much.

Apparently, how I answer this question of the nature of history is an indicator of my worldview. Well Looking at both models (the linear one and the cyclical one), I find some appealing aspects to both.
For instance, I definitely like the linear model, because it has a start, and I think human history did "start" someplace. (Irrespective of if that start was with an original man (i.e. Adam) or a highly evolved biped primate (e.g. homo erectus).)
On the other hand, to ignore the periodic nature of the economic and social course of history seems foolish.

I put forth a different model, that is a hybrid of both. Allow me to show the complete depth of my geektitude and describe it with some trigonometry. Imagine that history occurs in two dimensions, time and "the state of the world". Time travels along the x-axis, while changes in the y-axis represent the condition of mankind. (The state of the world or condition of mankind has been greatly simplified for this model, but what the hell).
As time marches on, the cyclical nature of history is described by some periodic function. The equation would be something like:
y = B(cos(Ax)) + c
where "A" is related to how long the cycle typically takes (i.e. period), "B" is related to how much the state of the world is affected by this variable (i.e. amplitude), and "c" is a constant related to where the cycle starts. To accurately model history, you would superimpose multiple periodic functions of this nature with varying period and amplitude, but you could capture all that is cyclical with this component of the model.
However, to model the linear aspect of history, we would have to adjust the cyclical nature of the model for those things that irreversibly change the world. For instance, the invention of the nuclear bomb, has permanently changed the cyclical nature of international war and geopolitics.
I'm not sure what the equation would look like in the end, but I think the state of the world would have permanent (linear changes) from the "start" of history until now, but all the while there would be this undulating pattern illustrating the cyclic nature of history to get there.

That was a long way of saying I think history is linear AND cyclical. History routinely repeats itself, but occasionally, something happens that (to borrow a cliche) alters the course of history.

You would never have guessed that I have a paper due tomorrow.

Procrastinatively yours,

"If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience."
~George Bernard Shaw

At 8:16 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Dave said...

Contemporary historians would probably reject the premise since both linear and cyclical models suggest a sort of teleology.

To my mind a more engaging and more complex metaphor for history is to liken it to a symphony.

The epigram "History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme," has often been attributed to Mark Twain, but the Twainists I have asked say that he never wrote it. But, it's that quote that prompted me to start thinking of history as more like a poem or a song, or better yet, a symphony, rather than a simple geometric shape.

At 9:37 AM, March 01, 2006 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fan-fucking-tastic post.

I wish I wrote this. I'm trying to think of something really profound to add - but I'm blank.

At 9:59 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Intellectual Insurgent said...

Birdy -

It's because you save everything profound for your blog. :-)

At 10:13 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger bombsoverbaghdad said...

I am definitely on the cyclical side. Same shit, different pile. People haven't changed much. Every single generation thinks they are the last. Every generation swears they will see the Messiah. I don't know if I believe in the concept of Messiahs. We're all God's children. Some people--like Jesus, King and Ghandi--are just special in their relationship with and understanding of God.

However, some of the things going on in the world do scare the SHIT out of me.

At 10:19 AM, March 01, 2006 , Anonymous Anonymous said...

II - If I save it all for my blog then that explains why I only post once a week (at best). It takes a while for those three or four brain-marbles to roll around! :)

At 10:21 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Stalin the Shark said...

I agree with Dave in that the question posits a false choice. Looked at closely, history can be made to fit either a linear model or a cyclical one. Both approaches suffer from the same methodological defect, which is - again, as Dave notes - the false assumption that there is a larger guiding force to history.

Arguably, the best operational framework to use in looking at history is chaos theory, the swelling of small things to huge consequence; that's the old saying about 'for want of a nail'. You can arguably trace the entire Reformation and the subsequent emergence of modernity to a tiny virus that mutated in Outer Mongolia sometime in the 1300s; that caused the black death, which in turn caused the social order of medieval Europe to collapse, leading in turn to the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Enlightenment and then modernity.

:-), StS

At 10:41 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Intellectual Insurgent said...

StS -

Do we remain in "modernity" or does it ultimately cause our self-destruction, which takes us back to square one, and we start all over again?

At 11:02 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger mrsleep said...


Well the question may be, what will be the next event to upset the apple cart.

Bird flu pandemic? Global warming, ie, dramatic climate change? Massive Volcanic event? Asteroid/large meteor hit? Genetic engineering out of control?

Everyone has added to the argument, but as STS says, no one can predict chaos, but you can recognize it's inevitablity.

Mankind is but a blip on the radar screen of time, and we greatly overestimate our importance.

In the grand view, we may in all likelihood, cease to exist, but the Coachroach will remain.

At 11:03 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger mrsleep said...

Cockroach, not Coachroach. What the hell is a Coachroach? Rove?

At 11:13 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Intellectual Insurgent said...

In your typo, you have invented a new term for Rove - CoachRoach.

At 11:44 AM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Stalin the Shark said...


the short answer to your question is that we don't know. Historically, we're in a new and unprecedented phase; we have a global civilization, and the capacity to destroy it at the touch of a button. There are no models for that.

If I had to make a guess, I'd say that this century will see the spread of democracy around the globe, since it's the only political model that enjoys global legitimacy; we'll see a war between America and China; the Arab world will descend into crisis when the oil runs out, or before, due to a crisis in legitimacy; and in a hundred years, barring catastrophe, we'll be in a multipolar world, with America still one of the leading players due to size alone. But that's pure conjecture.

:-), StS

At 1:11 PM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger mrsleep said...

America, or Amer-eee-ka (I watched West Side Story again last night).

The Social order in America will continue to change. Hispanics will continue to expand and dominate the entry level job base, with other immigrants, illegal or not. Hispanics will assert themselves as a powerful Political base in this country. Neither party today has effectively wooed them. The Rhetoric of the Right puts them in a tenuous position today to woo them over, but they have an unmatchable spin machine, so don't put it past their ability to craft a message. The Left appears at the moment of being ineffective at doing anything material.

The current middle class is in trouble as their jobs will continue to disappear.

The upper middle class, entry level professionals will be the next to be under the gun. They have respectable high paying jobs, and in many respects are mortgaged to the hilt. Even a minor economic catastrophe, will hit this group quite hard.

In a generation or two, we will have the have's and the have not's.

I guess this is following the linear view.

The question is what will the inflection point be? Will it direct us in the ultimate linear direction, or the cyclical direction.

The U.S. and China military-industrial-political base will continue to ruin the environment, and that may be what turns STS's chaos loose. A serious disruption the food chain due to environmental impacts will be a serious inflection point.

At 3:45 PM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger Intellectual Insurgent said...

Maybe it's the talk radio I listen to but, along the lines of ruining the environment, I have been hearing a lot lately about water being the next battlefront after oil. With the way things are going, there will be so little clean water left, that chaos necessarily will result. I am not as optimistic as Sharky about democracy around the world. America is barely hanging onto its republic by a thread and nowhere else looks mucb brighter.

At 4:55 PM, March 01, 2006 , Blogger mrsleep said...

Dina, I agree with you on both fronts. Except I think 4 inch tongues, or the longer the better will yield the truth balance of power :). Water will be a huge issue, and Democracy will exist but not dominate. Does democracy
exist in China, Vietnam, Russia, or the former Eastern Block republics? No. Shit, the American foreign policy about Democracy is hollow in my mind. For as long as I can remember we have propped up power mad dictators who ruled with absolute ferocity, and guess what? Our leaders didn't give a SHIITE (Iraqi humor),as long as these leaders looked out for American interests.

At 1:03 PM, March 08, 2006 , Blogger Possum said...

Got to agree with Chris: seemingly simple but murky.

II: your real question seems to be "Is Rome burning again?" as the thrust seems to be a comparison of our point in history. Don't know the answer, but it's a fair question.

Got to add the bell curve and the 80/20 principle to the trig theory propsed by Chad. I don't know where it fits, but it does somewhere. Just don't ask me to do a binomial quadriatic equation!

As far as Shark's chaos reference: the Butterfly effect of chaos applied to population??

I think I'll just enjoy my Manelbrot wallpaper on the ole pc and go back to blogging. My answer, by the way, is cyclical or more crudely: Same shit, different pile.

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At 2:32 PM, April 05, 2018 , Blogger المتوكل على الله said...

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تعتبر شركة ركن كلين للصيانة والنظافة من اولى الشركة التى له اسما فى مجال خدمات التنظيف ومكافحة الحشرات نحن لدينا احدث المعدات لجلى وتلميع السرميك وافضل المنظفات التى تستخدم فى مجال التنظيف الشامل بالرياض.
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At 12:04 PM, April 26, 2018 , Blogger rehabgad1 said...

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